AI Could Rewrite Global Trade, If Gaps Don’t Hold Us Back
For decades, world trade has grown in fits and starts. Each new tool—like shipping containers, the internet, or e-commerce—brought gains, but not always for everyone. The reason was simple: not all countries had the same access to those tools. Now the World Trade Organization (WTO) says artificial intelligence could spark the biggest trade boom yet, lifting global trade by nearly 40% and raising worldwide GDP by 12% by 2040. But the benefits won’t be automatic. Without equal adoption, the same gaps that held back past progress could once again divide rich and poor nations.
A History of Uneven Growth
Global trade has often been shaped by who gets access to new technology first. Shipping containers slashed transport costs in the 1960s, but poorer nations without modern ports couldn’t keep up. The internet opened new global markets, but many regions were left behind due to weak digital infrastructure. These missed opportunities show how progress can stall when tools don’t spread evenly. The WTO warns the same risk exists with AI today.
Why AI Could Change Everything
AI is different from past trade drivers because it touches every part of business. It can speed up supply chains, predict customer demand, and even lower language barriers. For exporters, it means faster delivery times, smarter logistics, and new chances to sell worldwide.
Imagine a small clothing brand in Kenya using AI to forecast global fashion trends. Or a farmer in Peru reaching European markets with AI-powered translation and marketing. These tools could give small players access to opportunities once reserved for big corporations. That’s why the WTO sees AI as more than just another upgrade—it’s a chance to reshape the very rules of global trade.
The Risk of Falling Behind
Not every country has the resources to invest in AI. Advanced economies like the U.S., China, and those in Europe are racing ahead, while smaller nations risk being left further behind. Without proper training, affordable access, and supportive policies, the AI gap could deepen existing trade inequalities.
If only the largest economies reap the benefits, AI could widen the divide. The danger is a world split between “haves” and “have-nots,” where developing countries find it harder to compete on fair terms.
A Chance for Inclusive Growth
The good news is that AI doesn’t have to repeat the mistakes of past technologies. Cloud-based tools, open-source platforms, and cheaper computing power are making AI more accessible than ever before. If barriers to adoption fall, even the smallest businesses and nations could plug into global trade networks.
The WTO suggests that with the right policies, AI could fuel the most inclusive wave of trade in history. That would mean not just more goods moving across borders, but more voices and cultures shaping global commerce.
Looking Ahead
The story of global trade has always been about connection—and about who gets left out. AI offers a chance to write a new chapter, one where innovation spreads more widely and opportunities reach further. For business owners, policymakers, and everyday workers, the challenge is making sure AI adoption is not just fast but fair. If the world gets this right, the next 20 years could bring a trading system that’s not only stronger, but also more inclusive than anything we’ve seen before.
Sources:
- World Trade Organization, The Impact of AI on Global Trade (2024)
- Financial Times, WTO forecasts 40% trade boost from AI by 2040
- UNCTAD, Technology and Inequality in Global Trade